On July 12, 2020, Joe Biden is currently in an enviable position in most national and battleground Presidential polls.
According to recent polling by the people at the Cook Report, he is leading by wider margins than Hillary Clinton ever did in 2016 and has commanding strength in states that went to Trump after going twice for Barack Obama.
A July 12 headline in the Washington Post highlighted a “coming tsunami” for Democrats in November.
His position is so strong right now that Democratic operatives are advising him to campaign more vigorously in once perceived Trump strongholds in Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.
That Iowa and Ohio are up for grabs should not be surprising considering Barack Obama won both states twice in his 2008 and 2012 runs. So did Bill Clinton in his Presidential runs.
Texas and Georgia becoming increasingly competitive should not be surprising either given the rise in African American and Latino populations along with a shift from the suburbs, especially during the Trump Presidency, to the Democratic orbit.
Should Joe Biden, with the American Ideal and Soul at stake, adopt an ambitious 34 state strategy to win the country on November 3, 2020.
Maybe.
First, it is important that he ensures that he will win the states necessary to cross the 270 thresholds.
Speaking on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos, former Chicago Mayor, House Representative and Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel commented on the current polls and what the Biden team should do:
“… I think on the straight point I would think of what you have right now don't get confused with the national polls. They are very, very good. But while he is -- the vice president is up in the battleground states, I would right now number one go secure those top battleground states before you expand the field. Keep your eye on those opportunities that approach."
"And I think right now, I wouldn't spike the ball on the 20-yard line. We know what happened in 2016. Focus, right now, on securing Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, that's what I would do. And then look strategically about which of those opportunities -- right now you have an election, George, where the American people want a president who solves problems and not be the source of problems, and that's the opportunity Democrats have right now.”
“And Donald Trump, until he changes that scenario, is he is seen as the source of problems, and Joe Biden is a secure, smooth choice. And nothing has changed that dynamic. If it doesn't change, Joe Biden is in a good position and the Democrats are in a very good position.”
To get to 270 Electoral Votes and beyond, there are two points he must achieve before campaigning for states that up until the last two years were largely not in Democratic sights.
Point One: Keep the 20 States Hillary won in 2016.
While this step may seem ludicrous given the current polling situation, people need to remember that Minnesota and New Hampshire were very close in 2016. They did go for Clinton then, but the Trump team has eyed them as possible pickups, especially in case Michigan goes back into the Democratic column.
The Biden team needs to ensure that the states Hillary won are firmly in their camp.
Point Two: Win the 26 States the Obama/Biden ticket won in 2008 and 2020.
All Biden needs to do is win the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and he is across the 270 Electoral map thresholds.
However, it is perfectly reasonable, given the current state of the country, for Biden and his running mate to repeat the performance of the Obama/Biden ticket from 2008 and 2012 and capture Florida, Iowa, and Ohio as well.
Florida only went to Trump by about a point in 2016 and his and Governor DeSantis’s handling of the Coronavirus has created an opening for the Biden team with seniors.
Ohio Democratic Sherrod Brown, in an article for the New York Times, has advised the Biden team that his state is obtainable.
Campaigning in Iowa could also help Iowa Democratic Senate Candidate Theresa Greenfield in her contest against Joni Ernst.
Pont Three: Go for the Gold and adopt a 34-state strategy that brings in longer Senate Coattails.
After the Biden team is reasonably sure they have at least the 270 Electoral votes, they should devote resources to states that have not voted Democrat in at least a little while.
These resources could also help to enlarge political coattails for a Biden Administration as most of these states have competitive Senate and House races.
The Biden team is already devoting resources to Arizona (which they see as probably the most likely 26 + pickup on the map) and North Carolina (which went for Obama in 2008.)
The other states Biden’s team may invest in, once they are secure in the other 28 (with Arizona and North Carolina) states are Georgia, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Texas.
Activists in Georgia and Texas are pleading with the Biden team to invest there.
Five of the six states have competitive Senate races where the challengers (Mark Kelly in Arizona, Steve Bullock in Montana, and Jamie Harrison in South Carolina for example) are on par or surpassing the Republican incumbent in fundraising.
Moving Forward
It is important that voters not become complacent like in 2016. Mr. Trump has a devoted base that truly (God knows how) believes he has performed well these last three years. They will register to vote and turn out for him.
It is vital that voters who feel that the American ideal and soul is at stake do the same.
Do you really want four more years that have been like the last three and a half?
No comments:
Post a Comment